社会科学期刊上登载的文章不适合被公众消费，它们也本能地拒绝成为公众消费品。在这些作者眼中，学术文章的读者群大多是抱着敌意而来，即便没有敌意，也至少是抱着疑虑。所以作者们不会费尽心思去吸引读者，更别说去讨好读者了。他们只希望读者能放他们生路。因此，比起拜读作者的作品，我更愿意与作者进行直接交流，因为这能让我对他们的学术观点有一个更清晰、更直接的认识，一份让人感到愉快的领悟——当然，文章我是一定要读的。
特沃斯基和卡尼曼的学术文章却是个很特殊的例外。尽管他们的研究只针对非常有限的读者群，但是他们好像预感到，未来会有来自各个领域的人成为他们的忠实读者。丹尼尔的著作《思考，快与慢》就是一本针对普通人的书，普通读者从中受益良多。实际上，我曾亲眼见证丹尼尔为这本书呕心沥血，耗费数年时间。我还有幸读过他初稿中的部分章节。丹尼尔的文字和他的言谈一样，风趣十足。然而每隔几个月，他就会绝望地想要彻底放弃写作——在他自毁名誉之前。为了阻止书稿的出版，他曾出钱给朋友，让他去找些人来说服自己不要出书。正式出版后，该书登上了《纽约时报》的畅销书榜单。有一次，他遇到了另一个朋友，据这个朋友说，他从没见过哪个作者对自己的成功抱这样奇怪的态度。“你不会相信发生了什么，”丹尼尔一脸狐疑地对他说，“《纽约时报》的那些人弄错了，他们把我的书放进了畅销书榜单！”过了几个星期，他又一次碰到那个朋友。“太难以置信了，”丹尼尔说，“《纽约时报》那帮人把我的书放进了畅销书榜单，现在只能将错就错了！”
衷心建议我的读者们也去读一读丹尼尔的大作。对于热爱心理学的读者，我还要推荐另外两本书，是它们让我进入了这个领域。一本是八卷本的《心理学百科全书》，它会帮你解答所有有关心理学的问题，语言清晰直白。另一本是九卷本的（还在扩充）《心理学史》，它能帮你解答有关心理学家的所有问题，尽管语言不如第一本那么简单明了。这部巨著的第一卷是在1930年出版的，之后陆续出版了后续卷章，在心理学家的大力推动下，新内容还在被源源不断地补充进去。
当然，在完成本书的过程中，我参考的书籍远不止于此。以下就将所有文献逐一列出。
引言 历史弥新的问题：思维在做什么
Thaler, Richard H., and Cass R. Sunstein. “Who’s on First.” New Republic , August 31, 2003. https://newrepublic.com/article/61123/whos-first
第一章 NBA的数据模型：达里尔·莫雷
Rutenberg, Jim. “The Republican Horse Race Is Over, and Journalism Lost.” New York Times , May 9, 2016.
第二章 局外人：丹尼尔·卡尼曼
Meehl, Paul E. Clinical versus Statistical Prediction . Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1954.
——. “Psychology: Does Our Heterogeneous Subject Matter Have Any Unity?” Minnesota Psychologist 35 (1986): 3–9.
第三章 局内人：阿莫斯·特沃斯基
Edwards, Ward. “The Theory of Decision Making.” Psychological Bulletin 51, no. 4 (1954): 380–417. https://worthylab.tamu.edu/courses_files/01_edwards_1954.pdf.
Guttman, Louis. “What Is Not What in Statistics.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 26, no. 2 (1977): 81–107. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2987957.
May, Kenneth. “A Set of Independent Necessary and Sufficient Cond tions for Simple Majority Decision.” Econometrica 20, no. 4 (1952): 680–84.
Rosch, Eleanor, Carolyn B. Mervis, Wayne D. Gray, David M. Johnson,and Penny Boyes-Braem. “Basic Objects in Natural Categories.” Cognitive Psychology 8 (1976): 382–439. https://www.cns.nyu.edu/~msl/ courses/2223/Readings/Rosch-CogPsych1976.pdf.
Tversky, Amos. “The Intransitivity of Preferences.” Psychological Review 76 (1969): 31–48.
——. “Features of Similarity.” Psychological Review 84, no. 4 (1977):327–52. https://www.ai.mit.edu/projects/dm/Tversky-features.pdf.
第四章 回到以色列
Hess, Eckhard H. “Attitude and Pupil Size.” Scientific American , April 1965, 46–54.
Miller, George A. “The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two:Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information.” Psychological Review 63 (1956): 81–97.
第五章 碰撞：小白鼠与巨蟒
Friedman, Milton. “The Methodology of Positive Economics.” In Essays in Positive Economics , edited by Milton Friedman, 3–46. Chicago:University of Chicago Press, 1953.
Krantz, David H., R. Duncan Luce, Patrick Suppes, and Amos Tversky. Foundations of Measurement —Vol. I: Additive and Polynomial Representations ; Vol. II: Geometrical, Threshold, and Probabilistic Representations ; Vol III: Representation, Axiomatization, and Invariance .San Diego and London: Academic Press, 1971–90; repr., Mineola, NY: Dover, 2007.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers.” Psychological Bulletin 76, no. 2 (1971): 105–10.
第六章 判断的机制
Glanz, James, and Eric Lipton. “The Height of Ambition,” New York Times Magazine , September 8, 2002.
Goldberg, Lewis R. “Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments,” American Psychologist 23, no. 7 (1968): 483–96.
——. “Man versus Model of Man: A Rationale, Plus Some Evidence,for a Method of Improving on Clinical Inferences.” Psychological Bulletin 73, no. 6 (1970): 422–32.
Hoffman, Paul J. “The Paramorphic Representation of Clinical Judg ment.” Psychological Bulletin 57, no. 2 (1960): 116–31.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness.” Cognitive Psychology 3 (1972): 430–54.Meehl, Paul E. “Causes and Effects of My Disturbing Little Book.”Journal of Personality Assessment 50, no. 3 (1986): 370–75.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (1973):207–32.
第七章 预测的机制
Fischhoff, Baruch. “An Early History of Hindsight Research.”Social Cognition 25, no. 1 (2007): 10–13.
Howard, R. A., J. E. Matheson, and D. W. North. “The Decision to Seed Hurricanes.” Science 176 (1972): 1191–1202. https://www.warnernorth.net/hurricanes.pdf.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “On the Psychology of Prediction.” Psychological Review 80, no. 4 (1973): 237–51.
Meehl, Paul E. “Why I Do Not Attend Case Conferences.” In Psychodiagnosis: Selected Papers , edited by Paul E. Meehl, 225–302. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1973.
第八章 医生的思维偏误
Redelmeier, Donald A., Joel Katz, and Daniel Kahneman. “Memories of Colonoscopy: A Randomized Trial,” Pain 104, nos. 1–2 (2003):187–94.
Redelmeier, Donald A., and Amos Tversky. “Discrepancy between Medical Decisions for Inpidual Patients and for Groups.” New England Journal of Medicine 322 (1990): 1162–64.
——. Letter to the editor. New England Journal of Medicine 323 (1990):923. https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJM199009273231320.
——. “On the Belief That Arthritis Pain Is Related to the Weather.”Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93, no. 7 (1996): 2895–96. https://www.pnas.org/content/93/7/2895.full.pdf.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Judgment under Uncertainty:Heuristics and Biases.” Science 185 (1974): 1124–31.
第九章 心理学勇士的诞生
Allais, Maurice. “Le Comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque:critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école américaine.” Econometrica 21, no. 4 (1953):503–46. English summary: https://goo.gl/cUvOVb.
Bernoulli, Daniel. “Specimen Theoriae Novae de Mensura Sortis,” Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae, Tomus V [Papers of the Imperial Academy of Sciences in Petersburg, Vol. V], 1738, 175–92. Dr.Louise Sommer of American University did apparently the first translation into English: for Econometrica 22, no. 1 (1954): 23–36. See also Savage (1954) and Coombs, Dawes, and Tversky (1970).
Coombs, Clyde H., Robyn M. Dawes, and Amos Tversky. Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction . Englewood Cliffs, NJ PrenticeHall, 1970.
Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow . New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011. The Jack and Jill scenario in chapter 9 of the present book is from p. 275 of the hardcover edition.
von Neumann, John, and Oskar Morgenstern. Theory of Games and Economic Behavior . Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1944; 2nd ed., 1947.
Savage, Leonard J. The Foundations of Statistics . New York: Wiley,1954.
第十章 孤立效应：风险决策
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk.” Econometrica 47, no. 2 (1979): 263–91.
第十一章 反事实思维的谜团
Hobson, J. Allan, and Robert W. McCarley. “The Brain as a Dream State Generator: An Activation-Synthesis Hypothesis of the Dream Process.”American Journal of Psychiatry 134, no. 12 (1977): 1335–48.
——. “The Neurobiological Origins of Psychoanalytic Dream Theory.”
American Journal of Psychiatry 134, no. 11 (1978): 1211–21.
Kahneman, Daniel. “The Psychology of Possible Worlds.” Katz-Newcomb Lecture, April 1979.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “The Simulation Heuristic.”In Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , edited by Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, 3–22. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
LeCompte, Tom. “The Disorient Express.” Air & Space , September 2008, 38–43. https://www.airspacemag.com/military-aviation/the-disorientexpress-474780/.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.” Science 211, no. 4481 (1981): 453–58.
第十二章 可能性之疑云
Cohen, L. Jonathan. “On the Psychology of Prediction: Whose Is the Fallacy?” Cognition 7, no. 4 (1979): 385–407.
——. “Can Human Irrationality Be Experimentally Demonstrated?”The Behavioral and Brain Sciences 4, no. 3 (1981): 317–31. Followed by thirty-nine pages of letters, including Persi Diaconis and David Freedman,“The Persistence of Cognitive Illusions: A Rejoinder to L. J. Cohen,” 333–34, and a response by Cohen, 331–70.
——. Knowledge and Language: Selected Essays of L. Jonathan Cohen ,edited by James Logue. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Springer, 2002.
Gigerenzer, Gerd. “How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond‘Heuristics and Biases.’ ” In European Review of Social Psychology , Vol. 2,edited by Wolfgang Stroebe and Miles Hewstone, 83–115. Chichester, UK:Wiley, 1991.
——. “On Cognitive Illusions and Rationality.” In Probability and Rationality: Studies on L. Jonathan Cohen’s Philosophy of Science , edited by Ellery Eells and Tomasz Maruszewski, 225–49. Poznan´ Studies in the Philosophy of the Sciences and the Humanities, Vol. 21. Amsterdam: Rodopi,1991.
——. “The Bounded Rationality of Probabilistic Mental Models.”In Rationality: Psychological and Philosophical Perspectives , edited by Ken Manktelow and David Over, 284–313. London: Routledge, 1993.
——. “Why the Distinction between Single-Event Probabilities and Frequencies Is Important for Psychology (and Vice Versa).” In Subjective Probability , ed. George Wright and Peter Ayton, 129–61. Chichester, UK:Wiley, 1994.
——. “On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky.” Psychological Review 103 (1996): 592–96.
——. “Ecological Intelligence: An Adaptation for Frequencies.” In The Evolution of Mind , edited by Denise Dellarosa Cummins and Colin Allen,9–29. New York: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Kahneman, Daniel, and Amos Tversky. “Discussion: On the Interpretation of Intuitive Probability: A Reply to Jonathan Cohen.” Cognition 7, no. 4(1979): 409–11.
Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment.” Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (1983): 293–315.
——. “Advances in Prospect Theory.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5 (1992): 297–323. https://psych.fullerton.edu/mbirnbaum/psych466/ articles/tversky_kahneman_jru_92.pdf.
Vranas, Peter B. M. “Gigerenzer’s Normative Critique of Kahneman and Tversky.” Cognition 76 (2000): 179–93.
终篇 葬礼与诺奖
Redelmeier, Donald A., and Robert J. Tibshirani. “Association between Cellular-Telephone Calls and Motor Vehicle Collisions.” New England Journal of Medicine 336 (1997): 453–58. https://www.nejm.org/ doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199702133360701#t=article.
Thaler, Richard. “Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization l (1980): 39–60. https:// www.eief.it/butler/files/2009/11/thaler80.pdf
其 他
Kazdin, Alan E., ed. Encyclopedia of Psychology . 8 vols. Washington, DC:American Psychological Association, and New York: Oxford University Press,2000.
Murchison, Carl, Gardner Lindzey, et al., eds. A History of Psychology in Autobiography . Vols. I–IX. Worcester, MA: Clark University Press, and Washington, DC: American Psychological Association, 1930–2007.